Ariste : Un homme-enfant rêve de remplacer le plus fort alors que
le seul choix rationnel est celui de Pascal : Article le + récent de l'auteur sur ce thème ici
le seul choix rationnel est celui de Pascal : Article le + récent de l'auteur sur ce thème ici
This is for instance a common practice in terrestrial defence. As an example, a US president would launch a new defence initiative at the faintest doubt on the existence of a new weapon capable to destroy his country with impunity by potential adversaries. No actual evidence is required. A cosmic protection initiative would in fact be nothing but an assurance strategy for the species against possible cosmic predators. For the existence of such beings cannot be excluded.
The Occam razor cannot exclude an existence of interstellar travellers and of cosmic predators. But everybody can already observe that pure science allows man to say that we would be seen as gods by our ancestors and that we would likewise see our descendants as gods if the future could be explored. Man is so a potential creator even if he is alone, at least if he manages to survive.
He cannot assert the existence of interstellar travellers and their evolution. But he could without risk well bet on a universal instinct of survival common to all intelligent beings, an instinct leading them to survive and to resist any evolution transforming them into pure preys for eventual cosmic predators such as man himself.
It is therefore incoherent to think that beings capable of interstellar travels would proclaim far and wide their existence as it is assumed in research programs such as SETI. Such beings would do as little noise as possible. A neutral analysis of the strategic problem posed in terms of pure security for our species would also lead man to abstain from proclaiming his existence as long as he persists to become a cosmic predator, as it is so far the case. For to a cosmic predator, any unknown territory should indeed be considered as potentially full of predators the more dangerous as they are apparently non-existent. And our sole galaxy will long remain unknown to man, if not for ever.
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A choice of peace or war
Because of this ignorance, man is therefore now face to a choice:
-The choice of a clear universal demonstration of his will for peace by giving up his millenary practices of predation and violence,
-Or the choice to remain silent while preparing mankind for war.
Man could not anyway hide face to such advanced beings. But the choice of peace could bring him some form of protection from any benevolent advanced ET, and the choice of war the indifference or the ire of all of them.
Conscious or not, the choice of man for predation and violence is so far unambiguous to any ET observer. Man is behaving toward the ET world as the American Indian condemned from the start to disappear face to travellers able to cross the wide sea. Beings able to cross interstellar spaces would still be more formidable, and betting on their inexistence or on their lack of sight could be fateful to man. He could only rely on their wisdom to survive, a wisdom grown during the very long time required for the preparation of their interstellar journey. But advanced ET could be benevolent as well as malevolent, and before going too far, man should decide which side he is prepared to support.
If science would be a decisive asset for peace or war, it could not help man any better than common sense and reason in this strategic choice.